The good news has been coming for several days: the French team, third in the FIFA rankings, will be top seed in the draw for the 2026 World Cup, scheduled for December 5 in Washington. A major advantage which guarantees the Blues to avoid the biggest nations from the group stage. But if France approaches this event with rare security, other major selections are in a much more fragile situation… and could even lose a status that they have long taken for granted.
Two giants threatened with relegation
Among these nations in danger, we find two former world champions whose identity will surprise more than one observer: Germany and Italy. Two football monuments, eight stars combined… but today placed on the verge of downgrading. For the first, the room for maneuver is slim: currently 10th in the FIFA rankings, the Mannschaft needs an imperative victory this Monday against Slovakia to consolidate its place in the top 12. In the event of failure, it would be condemned to go through the March play-offs and would automatically lose the possibility of being seeded.
Italy finds itself in an even more improbable scenario. Ninth in the FIFA rankings, the Squadra Azzurra is not directly qualified. She should have beaten Norway 9-0 this Sunday to reach the World Cup without going through the play-offs. Result: a new defeat against the Scandinavians (1-4) and a long journey of the cross.
The weight of the hosts and the risk of an explosive draw
This unusual situation is also explained by the configuration of the draw: with three host countries – United States, Mexico, Canada – automatically integrated into pot 1 despite a modest FIFA ranking, there are only nine places left to distribute to the best nations. Germany and Italy are paying the high price.
If the two giants were to miss the boat, the draw could give rise to a hectic scenario, with a group composed, for example, of an average seed… and a quadruple world champion in ambush. Enough to upset the balance of an already unprecedented World Cup with its format expanded to 48 teams.
