If the draw for the 2026 World Cup will be made on December 5, we will have to wait for the play-offs in March to know all of the 48 qualified. In the Europe zone, there will be 16 of them participating in the next North American World Cup: the first 12 from each qualifying group and the 4 teams from the play-offs, which will bring together 16 nations in total. Among which is a surprise guest who counts 0 points?
The scenario is very improbable but remains possible. San Marino, the dunce cap of Group H with 7 defeats in as many matches and a goal difference of -31, could actually reach the play-offs in a very specific – and quite technical – case. To understand how the current 210e and last team in the FIFA rankings can be part of the 16 play-offs, you have to hang on a little and show a lot of imagination.
San Marino qualified without ever winning?
As said above, 16 teams will compete in the Europe zone play-offs: the 12 runners-up from each qualifying group and the top 4 group winners from the Nations League who finished outside the top two in their qualifying group for the World Cup. Before the last two days of this November international window, here are the 16 potential play-off European nations:
12 group runners-up in World Cup qualifiers
- Slovakia (group A)
- Kosovo (group B)
- Scotland (group C)
- Ukraine (group D)
- Türkiye (group E)
- Hungary (group F)
- Poland (group G)
- Bosnia and Herzegovina (group H)
- Italy (group I)
- North Macedonia (group J)
- Albania (group K)
- Czech Republic (group L)
4 group winners drafted into the Nations League
- Wales (League B Group 4)
- Sweden (League C group 1)
- Romania (Group 2 of League C)
- Northern Ireland (League C Group 3)
Towards an arrangement with Romania?
For the moment, therefore, Saint-Martin is not part of the equation. But if Romania and Northern Ireland, currently third in their 2026 World Cup qualifying groups, manage to move up to second place in their respective groups, they would free up two places among the group winners in the Nations League. Two places which would then go to Moldova (group 2 of League D) and San Marino (group 1 of League D).
The most funny thing about this story is that Romania and San Marino are in the same group for the World Cup qualifiers and will face each other on the final day (November 18). The Romanians could then need to pile on the goals to dislodge Bosnia-Herzegovina from second place, which would also suit their opponents! Enough to make this meeting more interesting than expected.
