The Ballon d’Or has delivered its verdict. The vote organized by France Football recognized Harry Kane,
Kylian Mbappé having to settle for second place, ahead of Lamine Yamal on the third step of the podium, Rodri in fourth position and Lionel Messi closing the quinté. A ranking announced in advance by the specialized finance account Upside against a backdrop of scandal.
Upside had in fact revealed that this Top 5 had been the subject of massive bets on the predictive markets platform Polymarket. At the heart of what looks like massive insider trading: $264,000 funneled through 12 suspicious accounts hastily created in October. Seven of these accounts did not bet on anything else and six placed considerable sums just 15 minutes after registering.
The maneuver was based on a disconcerting financial strategy. A punter identified under the pseudonym kraben006 first accumulated gains from Harry Kane’s victory, before reinvesting everything in the exact positions in the rankings. Alone, this improbable combination – Mbappé 2ᵉ, Yamal 3ᵉ, Rodri 4ᵉ and Messi 5ᵉ – rose to 72% probability several days before the ceremony, betraying perfect knowledge of the result.
The precedent of 2024
Asked by Raw this weekend on the security of the vote, the editor-in-chief of France FootballVincent Garcia, conceded with premonitory lucidity: “that is to say that from the moment there are three, five people in the loop, the risk of escape is not zero. » This is evidenced by the precedent occurring in 2024.
That year, the early escape of Rodri’s coronation to the detriment of Vinícius Jr caused a diplomatic earthquake and pushed Real Madrid to boycott the ceremony entirely. In an attempt to maintain secrecy, the organizers had tightened their procedures, swearing that the winner would not be notified until the very last moment.
The prophecy came true in the worst possible way. If the identity of bettors remains protected by the anonymity of the blockchain, the perfect realization of this scenario on Polymarket sweeps away the hypothesis of a simple intuition. The Ballon d’Or is facing a new, unprecedented leakage crisis, proving that leaks are no longer just used to fuel the press, but now to generate colossal profits.
