It’s been the big game for a few days now. Everyone is having fun proposing a table for the round of 16, while waiting for the last matches. A table which will necessarily evolve according to the results, while the third day of the group phase began yesterday evening, with groups A, B and C. We therefore already know 6 qualified, the first 2 of these 3 groups, while waiting to see if the 3rd will be part of the 8 best. We have tried to explain to you the process established by FIFA for the deployment of the best third-place finishers in the final ranking.
While the third day is underway, until Saturday, it is possible to discover the current table, before the matches are played. Which gives an instant snapshot but which will not necessarily be the same as on Saturday at the end of the last meetings. Currently, for example, France would meet Sweden in the round of 16. Then Germany in eighth. Then possibly the Netherlands or Morocco in the quarter, Portugal or Spain in the half. A hell of a journey ahead.
Argentina favored by the table?
At the moment, it is the left part of the table which seems very tough, with the presence of several favorites. While the right part turns out to be more affordable, especially the lower part, with Argentina which could reach the last four, without having met an opponent of a priori equal value. A bit like what happened in the Champions League this season for Arsenal. However, Argentina was “disadvantaged” initially, since it belonged to one of the 4 groups where the 1st faces a 2nd (8 top groups face a 3rd group, 4 top groups face a 2nd). But they inherited the group from Spain, where the 2nd will be Cape Verde, Uruguay or Saudi Arabia.
So, if you don’t want to settle for the snapshot of the possible sixteenths and delve into the statistics, El Pais offers a poster prediction model, which takes into account the matches already played and simulates the rest of the tournament in order to estimate the probabilities. To return to Argentina, its most likely opponent according to this model is Cape Verde, at 54.2%, then Saudi Arabia at 27.2%, Spain at 10.3% and finally Uruguay (although the designated adversary at the moment T) at 8.3%.
For France, the most likely opponent is Sweden, at 39.8%, then Ivory Coast at 19.4% in the scenario where France finishes 2nd behind Norway. Then we find Japan at 13.1%, Iran at 7.8%, Egypt at 7.1%, Belgium at 4.1% and several other tiny possibilities. In eighth, it is Germany which most likely announces itself, then equally the Netherlands, Morocco and Canada in quarter. As in all competitions, there is an element of luck, at the time of the draw, then of the opponents designated during the tournament in relation to the different rankings. And history has proven that having the easiest route does not guarantee ultimate victory.
