The verdict is in for the Blues and all the other participants in the World Cup. And if many bookmakers make France the main favorite for final victory, Opta’s supercomputer is less optimistic for Didier Deschamps’ troops, winners in 2018 and finalists in 2022.
According to the 10,000 simulations envisaged by the statistics specialist, the French team has a 13% chance of lifting the trophy on July 19. The Blues are ahead of Spain, to whom Opta gives a 16.2% chance of adding a second medal to their jersey, and England follows closely behind with an 11.2% chance of being crowned, sixty years after their one and only victory.
And if France does not appear to be the overwhelming favorite despite an XXL squad and its recent past, it is in particular because of a particularly difficult first round. With Senegal and Norway in addition to Iraq, the Blues have inherited what most resembles a group of death.
Norway, a real scarecrow
According to Opta, the Blues only have a 60.3% chance of finishing at the top of their group, compared to 75% for Spain but also 73% for Argentina or 67.9% for England, which certainly does not prevent them from having a 92% chance of leaving their group. But the French could lose strength in the battle.
Norway is also according to Opta the 9e
team best placed to win the World Cup, ahead of Belgium or Morocco. And Senegal ranks 19e. For comparison, Argentina, with Austria, Algeria and Jordan, does not have an opponent among the 20 biggest favorites for final victory.
