Second in Ligue 1 last season, Olympique de Marseille had validated its return to the Champions League. The Phocaeans thus find the most prestigious European competition after a season of absence. A relief for the club, which had known at the start a contrasting national campaign but had been able to win behind PSG, champion of France.
Carried by this qualification, OM led an ambitious transfer window this summer with the objective of getting closer to Paris Saint-Germain and to confirm in C1. The return of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, the arrivals of Igor Peaceão, Timothy Weah and other recruits testify to the will of Roberto de Zerbi to repeat, even exceed, the performance of the past year.
However, OPTA projections published this Wednesday, August 13, announce a less favorable season. According to his super computer, which achieves 10,000 results simulations, Marseille would only finish in 5ᵉ place in 2025-2026, with only 30.73 % chance of winning a ticket for the next Champions League.
Red zone trooped for the PFC
At the top, PSG would keep its title with 77.62 % probability, ahead of Lille, reinforced by Olivier Giroud, then Monaco. Olympique Lyonnais, despite a reduced workforce this summer, would occupy 4ᵉ place, just ahead of OM. Strasbourg would climb to 6ᵉ position, Nice would go back to the 7ᵉ, while Lens and Brest would remain 8ᵉ and 9ᵉ respectively.
At the bottom of the table, Paris FC would narrowly maintain itself in 15ᵉ place, Lorient would inherit the role of barragist, and Le Havre as Metz would be relegated directly. For these four clubs, Opta assesses the risk of descent to around 30 %.
