Everyone can make their prediction, for a little game that is as fun as it is risky. But as we attack the round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup, if there is something that stands out at the end of the group stage, it is that the French team now arrives at No. 1 in the list of favorites.
Many consultants believe that the Blues are best placed to win. This is also the opinion of bookmakers, and statisticians, like Opta, who places France ahead of Argentina, Spain and England. Next come Brazil, the Netherlands, Portugal and Germany.
France in the final against Argentina? Yes, but…
With its own statistical model, Football Meets Data arrives at the same conclusion, with the same top 8, in the same order, and fairly similar victory probabilities: 17% for France, 16% for Argentina, 13% for Spain, etc.
The account goes even further, listing the probabilities for each potential final. Unsurprisingly, since France and Argentina are the two main favorites, and are placed in two different parts of the table, a revenge of Kylian Mbappé and his gang against Lionel Messi and his becomes the most anticipated scenario. But there is a big downside…
If we look in detail, this France-Argentina final has an 8% chance of happening according to Football Meets Data. If we take things the other way, there is therefore a 92% probability of seeing another poster. Idem, if Didier Deschamps and his men are in the best position with a 17% chance of winning the jackpot, this also implies an 83% chance of not going to the end. Nothing to get excited about, so…
