You would think that the weight of the story would be enough to reassure everyone. With its gigantic track record, the Nazionale seemed to be the absolute scarecrow of these roadblocks, the giant that no one wants to cross. However, computers We Global decided otherwise after the draw. In the small game of probabilities, the Squadra Azzurra only comes in second position with a 62% chance of qualification. She is beaten by a nation that few observers expected at this level of statistical certainty: Iraq, credited with 63%. It is an accounting anomaly which says a lot about the current fragility of the Transalpine region.
Iraq dethrones Italy as play-off favorite!
This lack of confidence in mathematical models does not come out of nowhere. It can be explained by the complexity of the Italian course and, above all, by the prospect of a potentially nightmarish play-off final in Cardiff. The idea of having to get his ticket against Wales, in a hostile stadium and in a dry match, caused the rating of Gattuso’s men to drop. Add to that the still raw psychological trauma of the last two play-off eliminations – the Swedish wall and the Macedonian tragedy – and you get an Italy which undoubtedly scares its own supporters more than the bookmakers.
Behind this unexpected remote duel, other nations are doing well. The Democratic Republic of Congo poses itself as a very serious candidate with a 60% chance of seeing America, confirming its rise to power. The Leopards are even ahead of regulars in European games like Turkey (52%) or Denmark (49%). Ukraine, despite a difficult context, maintains a 43% chance, proving that the battle will be fierce for the last keys.
The figures compared to the reality on the ground
Conversely, the outlook is bleak for others. Lewandowski’s Poland (26%) and Bolivia come from very far away. As for the nations involved in the more exotic intercontinental play-offs, such as Suriname or New Caledonia, their hopes are, according to the figures, a sporting miracle. But that is the whole limit of the exercise. These percentages are only cold projections which do not take into account the “magic” of the Cup, this ability that certain teams have to sublimate or collapse under pressure.
Next March, this 62% will mean nothing if Italian legs tremble at the fateful moment. Football is undoubtedly the sport most resistant to probabilities. Iraq may be statisticians’ favorite today, but the truth of spring is often very different from that of fall. It will be up to the Italians to deny the calculations and remember that a four-time world champion never really dies before the final whistle.
