Italy is heading straight for the play-offs for the 2026 World Cup. Despite the 4-1 victory against Moldova last Thursday, the Squadra Azzurra will have to go through a mini-tournament next March to hope to play the World Cup in North America. Norway, thanks to a largely favorable goal difference, has almost validated its direct qualification. Mathematically, the Azzurri could still avoid it by beating the Scandinavians 9-0 on Sunday at San Siro. But Gennaro Gattuso recognized it on Wednesday: this feat is “unthinkable, not to say impossible”. So there remains the road of dams. One more humiliation for a quadruple world champion nation.
A journey strewn with pitfalls
The draw will take place on November 20. Sixteen nations will be divided into four pools of four teams, with a semi-final and a final per pool. Only four tickets for the World Cup will be distributed. La Squadra, placed in the first pot thanks to its UEFA ranking, will face a nation from the fourth pot in the semi-final: Sweden, Wales, Northern Ireland or Romania. Opponents far from being negligible in a dry match. Zlatan Ibrahimovic may have retired, but Sweden are still a strong team. Gareth Bale’s Wales reached the semi-finals of Euro 2016. Northern Ireland and Romania can spring a surprise. Nothing is guaranteed.
If Gattuso’s men advance past the semi-final, they will then face a potentially even more formidable opponent in the final. Turkey, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Albania, Slovakia, Scotland, North Macedonia, Iceland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo: so many nations who dream of eliminating the Squadra. Some have already created the feat in the past. North Macedonia beat Germany in qualifying for the previous World Cup. Iceland defeated England at Euro 2016. In one match, everything can change. And Italy knows it better than anyone after missing two consecutive World Cups in 2018 and 2022.
Italy can tremble
Gattuso also expressed his frustration with the qualification criteria imposed by FIFA. “I have a lot to say. We should talk about the League of Nations, but one day it would be right for the president to come and explain everything,” said the coach on Wednesday. A dig addressed to the world body, which grants relatively few places to Europe for the 2026 World Cup despite the continent’s high level. Sixteen European nations will compete in these play-offs for four tickets. A cruel ratio that could leave great nations in the lurch.
On December 5, the draw for the World Cup groups will take place. But the Squadra will not yet know if it will participate. We will have to wait until March and these suspense roadblocks. Two matches, all or nothing. Gattuso will have to deal with a team under maximum pressure. A third consecutive failure would be historic. And dramatic. Sunday at San Siro, the Azzurri will play their honor against Norway. Then March will come. And this mini-tournament where everything will be played out in 180 minutes.
