The picture is quite gloomy for Italy. If the Nazionale wants to progress through the group stage of the World Cup for the first time since 2006, Gennaro Gattuso's men will have a lot to do. They won't have it easy, in any case.
In Group I of the qualifiers, Norway is currently imperial. Six matches, six victories, only three goals conceded for 29 goals scored by Erling Haaland and his teammates. This clearly complicates the task of Italy, which is six points behind, a much less favorable goal difference (+26 against +7), and certainly one more match to play.
For the Italy-Norway on the last day to have a chance of being decisive, the Nazionale must beat Israel this Tuesday, then win in Moldova on November 13. At the same time, it would take a misstep from Norway against Estonia, to prevent Italy from being forced to win by a very large score during the final clash, in order to improve their goal difference.
Italy in the play-offs then in the group of death?
In short, everything suggests that Norway will finish at the top of the group, which is likely to send Italy to the play-offs. It would be a double punishment. The transalpine people have not forgotten the trauma of the eliminations in the play-offs against Sweden in 2018 and especially against North Macedonia in 2022. And even in the event of qualification for the World Cup, the Nazionale will not be at the end of its misfortunes.
With the 48-team format, the play-offs will automatically be placed in hat 4. Which gives Italy every chance of finding itself in a group of death, since the pots are composed according to the Fifa ranking. Unless it falls on one of the host countries, like Canada for example, the Nazionale risks having big pieces in its path…
