At the time of these lines, we know 21 of the 48 qualified for the 2026 World Cup. But that does not prevent statistical accounts from having an idea of ​​what the hats will look like during the draw for the final phase.
For Algeria, there is no doubt. According to Football Meets Data, the Greens are certain to appear in the third hat. It is impossible for Riyad Mahrez's teammates to climb into pot 2 or go down to pot 4, no matter what happens at the end of the qualifiers on all continents.
For the draw for the 12 groups, the 48 qualifiers will be divided into four hats according to the Fifa ranking. There will be no geographical distribution, which would for example place all Europeans in the same pot to limit confrontations between groups from the Old Continent (there will inevitably be some).
Watch out for Italy in hat 4!
Algeria will therefore have an opponent from hat 1, who will be either one of the three host countries (United States, Mexico, Canada) or one of the nine best qualified in the Fifa ranking (Spain, France, Argentina, England, Brazil, etc.).
In hat 2, it is still possible to find Germany, as well as Morocco (which Algeria cannot face), Uruguay or Denmark. Big pieces, then.
And that's not all! In hat 4, in addition to the “misclassified” like New Zealand, we would also find the six roadblockers, therefore the four Europeans. In the field, there could be Italy, who are almost certain to be in the play-offs. This could result in some pretty terrible groups…
Examples of death groups for Algeria:
France-Uruguay-Algeria-Italy
Argentina-Germany-Algeria-Italy
Spain-Japan-Algeria-Italy
