The wound is still open for Italian football. We have to go back to 2014 to see the Nazionale play a World Cup final phase. And for Gennaro Gattuso's men, the ticket to the United States next year is far from won.
Currently, Italy is 2nd in Group I of the qualifiers, six points behind Norway, who won the first confrontation between the two teams last June (3-0).
Norway also have a very favorable goal difference, which suggests that it will take more than a victory for Italy in the second leg next November. Erling Haaland and his teammates will also need to drop points en route in at least one other match.
Italy still in the play-offs?
According to the Football Meets Data account, Norway would have an 89% chance of finishing at the top of the group and recovering the only qualifying ticket for the World Cup. For Italy, it is still the dams that are looming.
Football Meets Data has also run its computers, and reveals the most likely opponents of the Nazionale in the play-offs. Terrible wink of destiny, there are in particular Sweden (19%) and North Macedonia (17%), the two selections which deprived Italy of the World Cup, in 2018 and 2022. It is perhaps time to rewrite history…
