The French Cabinet Avisia, specialized in data and artificial intelligence, published its prediction for the Ballon d'Or 2025 via the Avisia Player Index. According to their model based on a Random Forest in binary classification, Ousmane Dembélé leads with 72 %chance of winning the trophy, followed by Lamine Yamal (56 %) and Vitinha (40 %). The model takes into account individual and collective performance, the notoriety of players as well as the historical influence of the voting system.
The evaluation is based on several criteria: victories in the major championships and international competitions, spectacular individual statistics, personal awards and media presence. The model also incorporates a factor of “journalistic impact”, analyzing the affinities of voting journalists with certain nationalities, clubs or styles of play, thus offering a complete and nuanced prediction of the 2025 Golden Ball podium.
