A surprise winner in the Champions League?

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By: Nicolas Gerbault

The big clubs of the old continent are now fixed on their eight opponents of the first phase of the Champions League and it will be a question of chaining success in order to appear in the top 8 of the ranking, which allows access to the knockout stages directly (and even to receive at home in 8th and quarters).

PSG is one of the big favorites for its own succession, the formation of Luis Enrique not having changed much since its magnificent coronation against Inter Milan (5-0), on May 31 in Munich. The site Euro Club Indexwhich predicts the next results by taking into account the form of the teams, gives only 11 % chance to Ousmane Dembélé and his teammates to do the double.

It is true, Paris Saint-Germain inherited one of the most difficult calendars of the first phase and is not certain to avoid the 16th finals. With six Premier League clubs and five from Liga, the three representatives of Ligue 1 were more likely to come across English and Spanish. The red and blue shot Tottenham and Newcastle and Barça and Bilbao with Bayern!

Arsenal winner of the Champions League?

Five other clubs are 10 % luck or more to lift the cup to the big ears on May 30, 2026 in Budapest (the road for the Hungarian capital is still very, very long). Real Madrid is the favorite of the season with 16 % chance of gaining competition according to Euro Club Index. Then follow Liverpool and Barça at 13% and 12%, knowing that the Reds realize the most important summer transfer window in Europe.

In 5th place in these statistical predictions, we find Arsenal, with 10 % chance of winning the C1. The Gunners were part of hat 2 of the draw but now have a formidable team thanks to an XXL recruitment (Martín Zubimendi, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyökeres while waiting for Piero Hincapié). Mikel Arteta's men are better placed than Manchester City and Bayern, who show 8 % and 7 % respectively.