At the time of challenging Paris Saint-Germain in the semi-final go to the Champions League, Arsenal must compose with a (recent) European past which does not encourage optimism. In their last four European semi-finals, all competitions combined, the Gunners won only one first leg: it was in 2019, against Valence (3-1). On three other times, Arsenal was hung or beaten: defeat against Villarreal in 2021 (2-1), null against Atlético in 2018 (1-1) and backwards against Manchester United in 2009 (1-0). This recurring incapacity to dominate a semi-final go may well open a breach for PSG.
Absences and statistics favorable to PSG
Even if Paris has dropped to the Emirates in the group phase (0-2), several elements invite optimism on the Parisian side. Arsenal will have to deal without Thomas Party, pillar of his midfielder, suspended this evening. An absence that could weigh heavily in the face of the technical and energetic midfield of PSG. In addition, Luis Enrique knows the Premier League well: the Spanish coach presents a positive assessment against English clubs, with 7 victories, 3 draws and 4 defeats in all competitions. An encouraging sign while Paris dreams of a new final.
What if Arsenal was still cracking? The sign that boosts Paris
On the statistician side, Octa is cautious: mathematical models place arsenal slightly favorite for this meeting. However, the weight of history sometimes weighs as much as algorithmic forecasts. Arsenal has shown its limits in the past during the first European acts under high tension. If Paris addresses this match with seriousness and intensity, the opportunity to snatch a positive result in London is real.
Paris ready to thwart the forecasts
This Tuesday evening, PSG will have nothing to lose but everything to gain. With an experienced workforce, a trainer experienced in European jousts and a rather favorable historical context, Parisians can hope to make predictions lie. A good result at the Emirates would not only be a step towards the final … but also a first great feat in this European spring.
