As the Bayern-Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund-PSG Champions League semi-finals approach, the Euro Club Index site has calculated the probabilities of the next meetings and the final coronation. One team stands out from the others!
After the elimination of Manchester City on penalties against Real Madrid on April 17, who is now the favorite for the Champions League? The semi-finals will deliver their verdict quickly. The Bayern-Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund-PSG first leg matches take place on Tuesday and Wednesday, before the return legs next week. We will then know the two finalists of the 2023-2024 edition who will face each other at Wembley on Saturday June 1.
The site Euro Club Index calculates the probabilities of matches taking into account the results of the season and the current strengths and weaknesses of each team. In this little game, Real Madrid has no less than a 47% chance of lifting the big-eared cup! Casa Blanca would then win its 15th C1. However, on the pitch, Carlo Ancelotti’s team does not start in a position of strength against Bayern, who are having a less good season but who are a formidable team.
PSG at 22%
If Real therefore has a one in two chance of winning according to Euro Club Index, PSG and Bayern have probabilities of finishing as European champions of 22% and 18% respectively. This is not much for the Rouge et Bleu, who start as clear favorites for their next double confrontation against Dortmund. Especially since Luis Enrique’s team will first play in Germany before hosting at the Parc des Princes next Tuesday. Dortmund has a 13% chance of creating a surprise in London.
The calculations ofEuro Club Index however, promise balanced semi-finals, with 34% victory for Bayern/28% for the draw/38% victory for Real, and 40% victory for Dortmund/28% for the draw/33% of victory for PSG. We note, however, that this site made a big mistake for the quarter-final return, giving 52% victory for Barça and 22% victory for PSG (who won 4-1 in Catalonia) .
