Even if France still has four representatives in the Europa League, the chances of seeing a Ligue 1 club win this competition appear very low.
There are 24 teams remaining in the Europa League, and four of them are French. But it would be too risky to write that the French clubs have a one in six chance of winning the competition. The Euro Club Index account made its projections, based on statistical data provided by Gracenote. It turns out that Liverpool are the big favorites for this Europa League, with a 38% chance of winning it, ahead of Bayer Leverkusen (12%). And the French come much further.
According to this account, it is RC Lens which has the most chance of winning (2%) ahead of Olympique de Marseille (1%). Then come Stade Rennais (<1%) and Toulouse (<1%), which is almost like a little thumb (only Qarabag is less highly rated). French clubs are penalized by being play-offs, with one more round to go. But this is not an obstacle for AC Milan, which comes third in the list of favorites.
What are the chances of winning the 2023/2024 #EuropaLeague?
🏴Liverpool remain the big favorites as they are 4th on our ranking
🏴Liverpool, 🇩🇪Bayer Leverkusen and 🇮🇹AC Milan are all in Europe’s top-20 best teams
Only 18% chance that one of the #ChampionsLeague teams wins pic.twitter.com/1OQItDYQmt
— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) December 15, 2023
PSG is also starting from afar…
In the Champions League, the favorite is Manchester City, ahead of Real Madrid, Bayern and Arsenal. Paris Saint-Germain only comes in eighth position according to Euro Club Index, with a 4% chance of winning the Champions League. Among the runners-up in the group, PSG is not the team that has the best chance of going all the way. The capital club is slightly ahead of Inter Milan, finalist last season.
What are the chances of winning the 2023/2024 #ChampionsLeague?
🏴Manchester City favorites with close to a 1 in 3 chance of a 2nd successive title
6⃣2⃣% chance that City, 🇪🇸Real Madrid or 🇩🇪Bayern Munich lift the trophy
Around 2⃣3⃣% chance of a new name on the trophy.#UCL pic.twitter.com/5oFCn9nKhv
— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) December 14, 2023
…while Lille can believe it
Unsurprisingly, it is in the Europa Conference League that France has its best chance, with Lille, who will be the Ligue 1 club to be seeded in their round of 16. Losc is placed in second position among the contenders, while, as in C1 and C3, the favorite for this C4 is English, with Aston Villa (25% chance of victory). Lille comes next (11%), with Betis (11%), Fiorentina (9%) and Fenerbahçe (9%).
What are the chances of winning the 2023/2024 #ConferenceLeague?
🏴Aston Villa remain favorites but their chance has dropped to 25% due to the surprising presence of 🇪🇸Real Betis in the competition
Of the 24 teams left, only Villa and Betis are ranked in Europe’s top-35#UECL pic.twitter.com/IZvkxEicsE
— Euro Club Index (@EuroClubIndex) December 15, 2023
