Ligue 1: Week 21 – Preview + Predictions

ASSEOLderby

No doubt what the biggest game is this weekend, Saint-Etienne hosting Lyon at the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in the Rhone derby. We also have second v fourth as Angers travel south to face Nice on Friday. Lille and Bordeaux do battle in the middle of the table, plus Marseille has a great chance of closing the gap on Caen on Sunday.

OGC Nice v SCO Angers: Friday 19:30 – @Gibney_A

This Friday, the Ligue 1 weekend kicks off down in the south of France as OGC Nice try to stop the slide against the in-form surprise of the season, SCO Angers.

Twenty weeks in we should probably stop calling Angers a surprise, but their story is phenomenal and with every win they get closer to winning a place in Europe for next season. Stéphane Moulin’s side have won three of their last six games, including last week’s 2-0 win over rivals Caen; on the other hand their opponents have only won once over the same period.

Claude Puel’s side should probably have lost on Sunday. Lille had the chances to put les Aiglons away, but their poor form in front of goal came back to haunt them. Despite their poor recent form, Nice are still fourth in Ligue 1, but only 10 points clear of the relegation zone. Now would be a good time to turn that tide around.

Lille showed on Sunday that Puel’s side can be hurt on the break; that will be Angers game-plan as always, but they will hope for more joy in the final third. Moulin’s side offer a greater threat from set-pieces too.

Nice will definitely control possession, looking to get Hatem Ben Arfa on the ball whenever possible. His creativity and influence has dried up in recent league games, and with only three goals in their last six games, the home side need to find that early-season decisiveness if they are to win on Friday night.

SM Caen v Olympique de Marseille: Sunday 16:00 – @rich_allen85

Caen welcome Marseille to the Stade Michel d’Ornano for the second time in two weeks on Sunday. Whilst Marseille emerged victorious then, on penalties in the Coupe de France, Caen will be hoping to have more luck on their side. They dominated that game but a combination of wasteful finishing and an inspired Steve Mandanda proved their downfall.

After such an excellent start to the season, the Normans are going through a bit of a wobbly patch of late. Winless since the end of November, they have lost each of their home games and have seen their league position drop from 2nd to 5th. Key to the recent run of poor form was the exact issue they had in that Coupe de France game. They need to convert more of the opportunities they create. In Vincent Bessat, Julien Feret and Andy Delort that have all the means to score more but for some reason it’s just not happening lately.

Marseille, on the other hand, who are favourites to win with the bookmakers, will be relieved to get away from the Velodrome. Life on the road has been immeasurably more comfortable than in front of their own fans this season. Last week’s dour performance against Guingamp took the Marseille supporters closer to breaking point. Injuries haven’t helped the situation with Lucas Ocampos the latest to pay a lengthy visit to the Marseille medical facility.

This should be a fairly open, entertaining game. Caen will be keen for revenge after their Coupe de France exit whilst Marseille and especially their fans won’t forget that opening day loss at home to Sunday’s opponent. That Delort goal and the subsequent defeat brought about the end of the Marcelo Bielsa era.

Calling the result of this game will be tricky as, whilst Caen can look to take advantage of an injury-ravaged Marseille squad, the away side can once again enjoy the freedom and pressure-free environment away from the Velodrome. A draw would be the safe prediction but with a settled side and an eagerness to stop the rot, Caen may just have enough to sneak a win.

Saint-Etienne v Olympique Lyonnais: Sunday 20:00 – @jeremysmith98

Saint-Etienne have not had to wait long for revenge. Just over two months after their last meeting, les Verts have the opportunity to avenge their heavy 3-0 defeat at the Gerland. Lyon, meanwhile, will be looking to maintain a recent upturn in form and morale; a result against their bitter rivals would be a great tonic.

The last ever derby at the Gerland could not have gone much worse for Christophe Galtier. A hat-trick for Alexandre Lacazette, a season-ending injury for Robert Beric, a minor injury to Fabien Lemoine, accusations thrown at Jordan Ferri and Corentin Tolisso, and lots of general all-round bad blood. Not that we would say it to his face, but Galtier didn’t help himself by lining up a very negative team, starting with three defensive midfielders.

ASSE will have to improve on an awful performance last time out in a 2-1 defeat at Nantes (Florentin Pogba at fault for both goals). Recent form has been poor, with three defeats in the last five and penalties needed to beat CFA2’s Raon l’Etape in the Coupe de France. However, in their last home match they were one of the few this season to beat Angers, the team has few injury concerns (although captain Loïc Perrin and Romain Hamouma are out) and new striker Alexander Söderlund looked quite bright against Nantes: a winner on Sunday would very quickly endear him to the Geoffroy-Guichard faithful.

That Gerland victory was, bizarrely, the start of an awful run for Lyon, during which they lost five of six in Ligue 1, European football and their coach. However, in 2016, under new coach Bruno Genesio, things are looking better. A 7-0 victory, albeit against CFA2 opposition, is not to be sniffed at (just ask Saint-Etienne!) and last weekend they inaugurated the Stade des Lumières in style, beating Troyes 4-1, Lacazette the man for the occasion again with the opener. Even their midweek defeat to PSG, in which the Parisians again needed the help of the referee, showed signs of improvement. Lyon, too, will be without their captain, Maxime Gonalons. But stand-in skipper Samuel Umtiti has shored up the defence again and Clement Grenier will hope to repeat his two-assist showing last week.

There is a good chance that football will come out second best to fisticuffs and handbags on Sunday and the match could be decided by one mistake or a piece of individual brilliance.

PREDICTIONS

Week 21 Predictions

TIPS

For this week’s tip, we are going for PSG, Rennes and Gazelec to win this weekend. Rennes, although away, are taking on the winless Troyes – should be three points. Reims have lost two games in-a-row and Le Gaz are unbeaten in seven….then PSG.

A £5 bet would win you around £30.

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