A third of the way through the season (ish) and things are getting tight at the top of Ligue 1, with leaders Marseille only a point ahead of PSG in second, and another point ahead of Lyon in third. The Bielsa effect looks to be well in place for OM’s attacking verve, but this is restricted when playing against a strong defence; after the ‘getting to know you’ troubles in the first two games (drawing to Bastia, losing to Montpellier) and a run of eight straight league wins, they have lost now to both OL and PSG.

This is perhaps not a surprise; throughout the season, I have been maintaining a dashboard of Ligue 1 stats, using the BIME Analytics platform, and data from Football-Data.co.uk (with some reformatting, and ranking positions brought in from elsewhere). As PSG and OL hove into view behind OM, we can see from tab 2 why this might be – both in terms of attack (overall shot conversion rate) and defence (overall concession rate, i.e. % of shots conceded resulting in a goal) they are the strongest.

OM remain an attacking force to fear, however, and are the only team to be top 5 for all the key attacking metrics – goals, shots per game, % shots on target, and conversion rates for all shots and shots on target. The overall results can be seen in this interactive – select the metric you want to see and the chart re-orders, you can also filter for home / away performance as desired. OM’s issue may be that while they are top for goals (level with OL) and shots, they are lower down on the percentages that imply efficiency in attack.

Something that was clearly evident to anyone who watched the defeats against Lyon and PSG.

Attacking Categories

Another way to categorise the teams comes from the wonderful Experimental 361, looking at a distribution of teams’s shots per game and shots per goal, both scored and conceded, and comparing them against the league average to organise the teams in quadrants representing their attacking and defensive styles. This can be seen on the fourth tab on the main dashboard, and in the static labelled images.

In attack, therefore, a team that shoots a lot (higher on y-axis) but doesn’t need many shots per goal (left on x-axis) is a constant threat. The top three are all in here, and TFC, just sneaking in close to the league average of 11.2 shots per game, 9.5 shots per goal.

We’ve covered the Europa teams’ issues with scoring in some detail, and their league performances bear this out, Lille slightly knackering the chart-sizing with their energetically wasteful display. They and St Etienne are, as frequently observed, giving it a good go but are not massively finding the back of the net.

Defensive Categories

Looking at the defensive side of things, their performances are similar in terms their defensive efficiency as well as goals conceded (12) so their respective league positions are explained more by that gap in the attacking table. ASSE aren’t pulling up any trees scoring-wise, but they are doing just enough in the key games for two more wins and six more points.

This chart also has the top three in the formidable category, and another worrying gap, this time for supporters of anyone but PSG. With Ibra injured, they haven’t been the freescoring machine of last season (when they broke the chart-sizing for the attack) but they have remained efficient, which when backed up with a solid defence has meant getting results.

Rolling situation

A final demonstration of the situation for the top three is on their rolling performance in terms of goals and points (third tab in the main dashboard). Given that OM’s defeats against their rivals came in games 11 and 13, the drop-off in their rolling average points per game is directly correlated with that, but we can also see that the drop-off in average goals per game started in game 8 against St Etienne. It’s not terrible, of course – they got 2 in that, and the following two games against Caen and Toulouse, winning all three, but they are now level with OL on just over 2 per game after being well ahead for a considerable period.

So, OM need to put these two results behind them and look forward – however, their next two league games are against languidly clinical Bordeaux, who are also no slouches defensively, and defensively formidable Nantes, i.e. the fourth and fifth placed teams, although both of those are at home. Meanwhile PSG face Metz (ineffectual in attack, not really tested in defence) and defensive pushovers Nice, and OL face managerless Bastia and St Etienne, who probably won’t be able to avoid the attacking issue posed by Hubert Fournier’s men.

Turning our attention to the current bottom three, Guingamp, Lens and Lorient, and whether the above gives any reason for hope. All three are ineffectual in attack, which is their main problem; Guingamp are also in the ‘pushover’ category defensively (and, trying to be fair, remain there even if you knock out the Nice game where they conceded seven, although they do shift over to the right somewhat). Of the three above the drop zone, Bastia, Evian and Caen, the Corsicans look perhaps most likely to pull themselves together, Caen most likely to get themselves back into trouble, and Evian are mostly sticking their fingers in their ears and whistling (and possibly building a small wall around Daniel Wass). Obviously it’s still relatively early days, and from the writer’s point of view there is more than enough time for Montpellier to get themselves embroiled in this again. We will know more – including who gets to enjoy continuing midweek trips around Europe – at Christmas.

Possession

Finally, from another source – in this case WhoScored – the sexy beasts that are those common benchmarks: possession, and pass completion.

I have my issues with both of these, naturally. Possession, in particular, is not necessarily a designator of quality as it is massively dependent on the style of play of a particular team; however it can be indicator, as we see here with the top three in the table all top four in possession terms, and the bottom six are mostly the same here. The one outlier at the top is Lille, where the famous phrase ‘sterile domination’ may come to mind. More interesting, potentially, is the massive drop-off around the 50% mark, from the other outlier Lorient (50.7%) to Nantes (47.3%).

Pass Completion

On pass completion, this is a metric where comparing individual players requires an apples-to-apples approach to avoid comparing eg Mvuemba’s 93.7% (DM for one of the strongest defensive sides in the league) with Claudio Beauvue’s 63.4% (AM for one of the struggliest). Context is everything, and here this requires consideration of where the player is playing, with whom, and against whom. But looking at teams overall has some merit, on the grounds that it indicates their basic ability to get the ball to a team-mate. Here both mean average and median results are 77%, and again the top three in the table are top three, and the bottom six all feature at the wrong end of the table (and I told you I was worried about Montpellier) apart from Lorient.

Lorient are therefore a bit odd, statistically, and @MoeSquare recently wrote about their travails as they attempt to get out of trouble, which is well worth a read – Metz, also, being bottom of both these tables but ninth in the one that matters.

Meanwhile it looks tight at the top. Ibra’s back (subject to any new injury picked up on international duty), Lyon are purring, and Marseille need to get their mojo back. It’s all beautifully set up for the run in to Christmas.