Ligue 1: Preview + Predictions – Week 19

This is the last Ligue 1 weekend before the break, with the Coupe de France when they return – no one wants to end on a sour note.

EA Guingamp v Stade Rennais: Saturday 19:00 – @rich_allen85

It’s a Breton derby with added bite on Saturday as Guingamp host Rennes. Both sides are on pretty miserable runs of late and whilst Guingamp coach Jocelyn Gourvennec perhaps starts to feel the pressure after a poor run of form saw his club drop into the relegation zone, it’s his opposite number on Saturday night who will be feeling the most heat.

After crashing out of the Coupe de la Ligue at home to Toulouse, Philippe Montanier was escorted by security upon leaving the stadium as he was confronted by angry fans. This derby therefore could be make or break for Montanier. Team news won’t make for comfortable reading for Montanier; long term absencees Paul-Georges Ntep, Ludovic Baal and Edson Mexer were joined on Tuesday night by Pedro Mendes, out for a number of weeks with a knee injury. Montanier will be forced into a far from ideal Sylvain Armand and Fallou Diagne centre back pairing. Yacouba Sylla, sent off in that Toulouse defeat, will be suspended for the game. The return of Juan Quintero then will provide the smallest crumb of comfort for the under pressure coach.

Guingamp themselves have have hardly covered themselves in glory in recent weeks. Four consecutive league defeats saw Gourvennec’ side take their turn in the relegation zone. Whilst three of those defeats were away from home, it’s still cause for concern. Temporary salvation was taken in their penalty shoot out win over Nice midweek and they will be looking to kick on from that to give their fans something to cheer prior to the winter break. Yannis Salibur is the man in form for Guingamp as his two goals against Nice took him to five in total across the league and cup, all since the end of October. The game against his formative club could come too soon for Jimmy Briand who has been out with a hamstring injury.

This has the potential to be a fiery game and with so much at stake it could be one where cards outweigh goals. Whichever team can keep their composure will be the one that comes out on top.

Toulouse FC v Lille OSC: Saturday 19:00 – @Gibney_A

Saturday night’s clash at the Stade Municipal is an intriguing battle between two teams that have enjoyed both tough and exciting times this season.

Lille are on an unthinkable run of form right at the moment. Their 1-0 win over Laval in the Coupe de la Ligue on Tuesday is their fourth win in a row since Frederic Antonetti took over. Past the initial 2-0 defeat to Angers on the Corsican boss’s debut, Les Dogues may still have issues to iron out, but things are looking up.

Although they are still in 19th position, the same could be said for Dominique Arribage’s team. Two of their three wins this season have come over the last four games. Add to that the 3-1 cup win away against Rennes, and you can almost call it form.

Youth has been the key for Le Téfécé: Zinedine Machach, Alban Lafont, and Issa Diop amongst others have taken the opportunities handed to them. If Arribage wants to continue up the table he will need his experienced players to step up too.

It could also be Wissam Ben Yedder’s last home game in the purple and white shirt – three points would be the perfect Christimas/Leaving present.

 

Girondins de Bordeaux v Olympique de Marseille: Sunday 20:00 – @jeremysmith98

Not so long ago, Bordeaux vs Marseille was a nasty grudge match stoked up by the humungous egos of two rival presidents (Claude Bez and Bernard Tapie). Since then the two clubs have competed for the title (Bordeaux pipping OM on the final day in 1999 and 2009) and the cup (Marseille beating the Girondins in the Coupe de la Ligue final in 2010). However, the two teams’ recent decline means that this match fails to stir the blood as it once did; arguably the most interesting aspect is whether Bordeaux can keep up their amazing record of not having lost at home to OM since 1977, despite now being in a new home and Marseille having an excellent recent away record.

Wednesday’s impressive 3-0 win over Monaco in the Coupe de la Ligue will have slightly cheered up under-pressure Willy Sagnol, after only one win in their last seven Ligue 1 matches has left the club just three points above the drop zone. Star of the show was undoubtedly 19-year-old Adam Ounas, who scored the first and terrorised the Monegasque defence all evening with his dribbling and all-round energy. On Sunday he’ll be able to show whether he is able to turn it on twice in five days at this early stage in his career. If not, Bordeaux may be able to rely on Diego Rolan – remember him? – who is in his best form for a very long time, having scored three times in the last week. The Bordeaux squad is still hard-hit by injuries, and the likes Wahbi Khazri, Cédric Carrasso and Henri Saivet – who is reborn as a defensive midfielder – will need to step up to stop the Ligue 1 rot.

Marseille’s hard-fought 3-2 Coupe de la Ligue win over Bourg-en-Bresse in midweek was their sixth straight away win in all competitions – in marked contrast to their form at the Vélodrome, where they have not won in Ligue 1 since August. In order to keep up that impressive away record, Michel’s men will no doubt have to rely on their attack. The defence continues to look poor and, while 20-year-old Stéphane Sparagna did not have a bad game against Bourg, conceding two penalties (the first very unluckily) suggests he may not yet be the man to calm OM’s jitters at the back. Up front, however, Remy Cabella scored his third in his last five, Lucas Ocampos scored his second in three and Bouna Sarr put away his second in four, showing again that he is worth more than the odd substitute appearance. Top scorer Michy Batshuayi did not score but still played an hour – with so few centre forward options Michel could not afford to rest him, and the Belgian must be looking forward to the Christmas break more than most.

In the last Ligue 1 match before the trève, it would be nice to witness a little goalfest. This may depend on whether Bordeaux come out to play. Either way, Marseille should just have enough to end their hoodoo.

PREDICTIONS 

TIPS

Tough week to call, and the FFW predictions reflect that well. PSG are the easy pick – it’s hard to see them slipping up against Caen. Monaco should finish the year on a high, beating winless Troyes away from home – then the kicker. Five of the team think that Lorient will beat Nantes at home. Les Merlus have the fifth-best home record in the league and their last home loss came against Paris Saint-Germain.

£5 on all three would win you around £31.

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